Iowa Update

Getting close to the early primaries, so time to update my forecast. Michelle Bachman has faded from the front spot in Iowa and Pawlenty has dropped out of the race. Herman Cain was the flavor of the month but now Newt Gingrich is surging. I am still waiting to see who Mike Huckabee will endorse, but for now my prediction is: 1st: Newt Gingrich 2nd: Ron Paul 3rd: Mitt Romney 4th: Rick Perry The top two spots could easily be switched. Caucuses are more susceptible to influence by enthusiastic voter which Ron Paul has in abundance. The support for Gingrich is weak and most as an alternative to Romney. Still, so long as Romney runs a respectable third, I don't think Iowa will hurt him. Romney does not seem comfortable being the front runner despite his lead in fundraising and endorsements. He is the marathon man; simply outlasting his competition. It is likely that Michelle Bachmann and Gary Johnson will drop out of the race after the caucus, though Bachmann may hold out through the New Hampshire primary. Rick Santorum may drop out but is more likely to go on the New Hampshire.