Now that the Republican nomination field is mostly set (except Sarah Palin hasn't announced she isn't running), I can make an initial forecast of the Republican nomination.
Iowa Caucus
1st: Michele Bachman
2nd: Tim Pawlenty
3rd: Mitt Romney
4th: Newt Gingrich
Assumption: Mike Huckabee will endorse Tim Pawlenty before the Iowa Caucuses.
New Hampshire Primary
1st: Mitt Romney
2nd: Ron Paul
3rd: Newt Gingrich
4th: Michele Bachman
Wildcard: will the Tea Party voters make a strong showing in New Hampshire or will more traditional conservative dominate? I'm guessing the latter.
South Carolina Primary
1st: Mitt Romney
2nd: Michele Bachman
3rd: Tim Pawlenty
4rd: Newt Gingrich
I still expect Romney to be the nominee but the question is how long the nominating contest goes on. I expect it to whittle down to Romney vs Bachman fairly quickly. How long Michele Bachman can resist the pressure to fall into formation?
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