It was only on February 17 that Libyan protesters staged a "Day of rage" against the rule by Colonel Gaddafi. I admit I thought it unlikely that they would be able to succeed against the ruthless regime. But now we have reached an end game with most of the country in open revolt and only a few areas held by brute force. What is more surprising is how quickly elements of the regime defected in the face of the determined uprising, including the Justice Minister, the Interior Minister, Ambassadors and the United Nations delegation.
I hesitate to call this a democracy revolt; it is not clear what sort of country Libya will be after Gaddafi has been dealt with. But it is likely that the next government will attend more to the needs of the populace than the current government.
And this is probably the lesson that we should take from these events, that the voice of the people do matter even in an authoritarian government. Certainly, other governments are feeling nervous, as shown by the action taken by the King of Saudi Arabia. But it is too soon to begin looking for the next domino. The two big items to watch for are Iran and China but both governments have a lots of infrastructure and money invested in repressing the populations so it will be more likely a battle of attrition than the kind of sudden protest that worked in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya.
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