Populism in the Arab World

It was only on February 17 that Libyan protesters staged a "Day of rage" against the rule by Colonel Gaddafi. I admit I thought it unlikely that they would be able to succeed against the ruthless regime. But now we have reached an end game with most of the country in open revolt and only a few areas held by brute force. What is more surprising is how quickly elements of the regime defected in the face of the determined uprising, including the Justice Minister, the Interior Minister, Ambassadors and the United Nations delegation.

I hesitate to call this a democracy revolt; it is not clear what sort of country Libya will be after Gaddafi has been dealt with. But it is likely that the next government will attend more to the needs of the populace than the current government.

And this is probably the lesson that we should take from these events, that the voice of the people do matter even in an authoritarian government. Certainly, other governments are feeling nervous, as shown by the action taken by the King of Saudi Arabia. But it is too soon to begin looking for the next domino. The two big items to watch for are Iran and China but both governments have a lots of infrastructure and money invested in repressing the populations so it will be more likely a battle of attrition than the kind of sudden protest that worked in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya.

Democracy? in Egypt

Now that Hosni Mubarak has resigned as President of Egypt, many commenters are already talking about the possibility of elections in September. Every time a regime changes the same script seems to be run about returning to civilian rule and free and fair elections.

However, elections are not a sufficient and perhaps not even a necessary condition for Democracy. The rush for elections demonstrates an impatience quite at odds with the lassitude of efforts to push the previous regime towards Democracy. Quite evident, the hunger from “Western” governments is not for Democracy but for Stability. Fake elections are seen as an expedient towards returning to business as usual.

The most robust policy in the long term is not to seek Stability but to encourage Vibrancy. A central component must be to ensure a variety of voices have access to the media. Either state supported media must give equal opportunities to all parties or multiple competing private channels must be licensed. An independent judiciary must be capable of holding government accountable for corruption and for violation of human rights. Only with these elements can a sustained, and perhaps messy, national debate allow people to hear and decide the options for their future.

The recurring refrain is that elections will inevitably lead to fundamentalist Islamic rule. Chancellor Merkel heads the Christian Democratic Union; does that make Germany a Theocracy? The parties that contest a free and fair election must reflect the character and culture of the country in which it is held. An aversion to Islamic parties that lawfully compete in the electoral process is purely xenophobia.

In the end, Democracy must be tailored to each country; and only the citizens of that country, in a careful and negotiated process, can bring life to the aspirations for a freer and fairer country. Those who have already trod this path can offer advice about the pitfalls of this path, but Democracy can only be claimed by the courage, patience and wisdom of the people, Allah willing.